I depend on associate Roger Wiegand for some of the technical information that I use on a regular basis. In my weekly “Hotline” of my newsletter, “J. Taylor’s Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks”, I include the report that you see below. “ A Weekly Review of Key Markets by Roger Wiegand” This is good general data along with some of Roger’s comments. I believe it gives a good quick overview of what is happening in the markets.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 10424.62 +102.32 on a relief rally from yesterday’s selling to close out the week near the magic Dow magnet number of 10,400 support and resistance. Volume was normal and momentum was up. While the trading range closed on an up bar forecasting more buying on Monday, we think the top is in or nearly in. Yet, price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. Should the chart touch 10,500 on Monday and hold, we think that is the end, forming an intermediate bear double top prior to the larger sell-off we have predicted. Since price popped above the top channel resistance line and held, we forecast 10,500 high next week followed by steady selling.

S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1102.66 +8.99 providing even tighter more accurate technicals than the Dow. Price is above all moving averages but the 200-day average at 1094 and the price of 1100 are hard nearby support. If traders and the PPT can jam the price to 1150 for the top, the chart will have formed a wide and broad head and shoulders bear top. There is intermediate resistance at 1125 and price could pause right there and sell or finish the rally to 1150 and then collapse in new selling. It appears the pro traders are going to win again as they are cooling down currency black box trading, consolidating positions and preparing to run in a pack, away from this market. Next week is real interesting. Watch for Monday buying toward 1125-1150 then a peak followed by a pivot selling reversal. By this fall or earlier, we might get 8500 Dow and 750-850 S&P’s.

S&P 100 Index: Closed at 499.83 +3.16 pushing on the 200-day moving average resistance at 500.89, which we did forecast. Volume was 95% of normal and momentum is up. Support is the 50-day moving average at 495.39. While the closing bar forecasts more buying on Monday, it will take larger buying pressures to break 500.00 and the 200-day average. We would expect little buying on the upside based upon major moving average resistance, price resistance and a 5^th wave top coming on Monday or Tuesday. Watch for a peaking at 500.00 or 510.00 followed by a price reversal into a major selling cycle taking this index to 480 and possibly 460 during July and August for a new basing bottom. 

Nasdaq 100: Closed at 1875.38 12.28 with a close on an up bar signaling more buying on Monday. Volume was normal and momentum is up. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. However, unlike the other indexes, this one did NOT penetrate the top of the trading range, which bearish. Look for this index to rally on Monday and touch 1900 resistance and then turn over into a standard ABC sideways correction. After this is complete, expect selling to 1800 support with a pause followed by more selling to 1700-1710.

30-Year Bonds: Closed at 127.16 -0.94 as price has been rising into a narrowing bull triangle. Momentum is flat and the bonds were selling for the last two days as stocks were rising. Today, price closed on the base of the trading range forecasting more selling on Monday. Support is 126.90 on the 20-day average with resistance being 127.50. We think the bonds will sell down to the 50-day average by next Wednesday to support at 124.76-125.00. When stocks begin selling-off next week, bonds should find support and resume a new rally moving back-up toward 127.50.

Gold: Closed at 1188.60 -6.70 on falling momentum in a very mild selling pattern. The 200-day moving average is 1135.82 but we forecast gold sells to 1150 with a small chance to touch 1125 on a new base. There was a recent gold support at 1175 on the lower trend channel line for the August futures. However, the price popped back up once again to touch 1207 resistance and then settle back. Gold has just completed an ABC standard correction followed by a small five wave rally. Now it is basing at 1185 support (higher than the recent 1175) in preparation for a new run at 1207. The 20 and 50 day averages are both on 1204 near the magnet number of 1207 where new rally resistance appears. Watch for choppy, channeled price action until the end of next month when we should begin the fall run that could take price to $1,500-$1,600. Our next major hurdle is to get past $1,260-1265 and touch $1,325-1375.

Silver: Closed at 18.10 -0.01 with price staying close to 18,00 support and resistance. The 20-day average is 18.09, the 50 is 18.15 and the 200-day average is farther below at 17.35. Momentum fell to -0- and then supported on the index. The pattern top could be either, or both a sloppy head and shoulders, or just a plain bearish parabolic pattern. Silver begins its fall bull-run earlier than gold and it is forming a new base to get moving. However, we forecast that first, silver sells to $17.00-17.35 on the 200-day average with a new rally at the end of next month. Silver should rally to $21.50-22.50 as a minimum by the end of this year. With some stronger trading and fundamentals, silver might breakout from that top and touch $25-$26.

Gold & Silver Index (XAU): Closed at 173.42 +1.08 as stocks have been choppy and trading in a tight channel per the summer cycle. The three moving averages, closing price and lower channel support line are all clustered between 168.18 and 173.55. The metal to shares ratio is positive but there is too much congestion where these five indicators are all jammed together. Watch for mild buying on Monday followed by cycle selling taking price to 160 support and resistance followed by 150 new lower support. There is potential for 160 to hold but it takes some straining as most stocks go down next week.

U.S. Dollar Index: Closed at 82.48 near the 82.50 support and resistance we have been forecasting. Momentum is down and the dollar is weak. Selling has been in a down channel from a high above 88.00 falling to support on the 200-day average at 81.99. While there is pressure to sell dollars, we think 80.00 to 82.00 will hold for a trading range through August. We expected 82.50 to 82.00 for the balance of July some weeks ago and this forecast did hold.

Crude Oil: Closed at 79.06 -0.04 with all three moving averages stuck on 76.00 plus or minus some pennies. The price of 80.00 is firm resistance and support is 76.00 on the close. Momentum is up and the closing price bar is neutral undecided. With new drilling moratoriums in place, the BP spill contained, and reserves lower, oil should take another run at $80.00 by the end of July rising to $86.50.

CRB Index: Closed at 266.63 -0.23 with price resisting at 270 on the top channel line and supported by the 200-day moving average at 265.56. When crude oil breaks 80.00 headed to 86.50, the CRB should break through 270 toward 280. Grain is improving along with minor softs’ markets. Gold and silver could begin to move in about 30 days and then the CRB could rally toward 280-290. -Traderrog