Our Model Portfolio finished last week, well off its highs for this “B” wave up, which hit a high on January 8, 2010.
Despite the unprecedented “stimulus” asset prices around the globe have not been able to pull up to their 2008 highs. My sense is that nominal values of stocks and commodities have neared their peak or have nearly done so and that we are now awaiting the next shoe to drop in an A Down, B Up and C Down secular bear market for stuff.
I always reserve the right to say “I’m wrong” because that is always a possibility. However, I think Dr. Robert McHugh along with Mish Shedlock is right in saying that unless our policy makers get money into the hands of the masses to a much more significant degree than they have done to date, rather than into the hands of Goldman Sachs, who temporarily pump up asset prices, we are going to see a massive decline first in stock prices, then in commodity prices that may make the post Lehman Brothers “A” leg down look like Child’s play.
If I am right about that, I think those of us who have built up cash will be very happy to have increased our purchasing power dramatically so that we will be in a position to buy up gold mining shares at fire sale prices even as the underlying economics for those enterprises will have improved dramatically.