Business associate, technical analyst and trader Roger Wiegand, writer of Trader Tracks newsletter, publishes a weekly analysis of major market indicators. He lists statistics and gives trends from his viewpoint. I use these and often include in my newsletter. The following is such a report by Mr. Wiegend.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 10359.31 -7.41 on normal volume and rising momentum. Price has hit the 10400 major resistance level three times in an effort to break through going toward 10500 resistance. While we are seeing lower lows on those three trading bars, the closes are all firm near the highs telling us they might break through on Friday, 7-16-10 or perhaps next week before peaking and selling off. Price is also above moving averages, which is bullish. If the breakout is successful, we think 10500 with a maybe overshoot chance at 10600 could be forthcoming. Despite these positive moves the market is weaker and should be selling. We view this bullish price assault as an effort to drive up the Dow by pros to sell it off later into strength. We forecast a close of at least 10350 on Friday with an outside chance there could be more buying on Monday. However, traders should be very careful. We predict a strong sell-off when this market gives up and falls, which could be on Friday or Monday.            

S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1096.48 on 90% of normal volume and rising momentum. Price is just above and being supported by the 50-day average at 1094.01 and the 200 day average at 1094.80. The chart has a massive bearish head and shoulders top formed since last December. Further we had a price breakdown near the 4^th taking price beneath major support at 1040 down to 1020. Our close was also above the 20-day average at 1075.50, which is bullish. We are at the testing crossroads. Either this market breaks out above 1100 with solid holding-move or we go to selling very soon. Normally the breakout is on the third or fourth try. There is one chance left on Friday, tomorrow July 16^th.  Reasonably, the selling should begin but do not underestimate the PPT and their propping skills to extricate large traders with profits leaving the Sheeple holding the bag.

S&P 100 Index: Closed at 498.12 +0.65 on 90% of normal volume and rising momentum. Price is still under the 200 day average at 501.29 with additional resistance at the price of 500. Interestingly, price is stuck between two moving averages and a nearby down sloping, top channel trading line. Last year at this time stocks supported and rose higher in a major breakout. This year on the fundamentals stocks should sell off. However, politics as well as the New York’s traders would prefer shares go sideways as a minimum and then rise. Watch Friday, July 16 and Monday July 19^th to see a breakout in either direction.

Nasdaq 100: Closed at 1856.24 +2.83 finding support and resistance at 1850, a magnet price. This is also the 50 -day moving average. Price is above three moving averages, which is bullish. Yet it remains inside the down-sloping trading channel that is bearish. Momentum is rising and the close was high in the trading range signaling more buy-side pressures. If this market can rise to 1900 resistance over the next two trading days, there is a good chance stocks might go higher for a few more days as the Nasdaq 100 is the leading stock index indicator.

30-Year Bonds: Closed at 127.66 +1.06 helped by the good reception Spanish bonds received today. Spain has been in real financial hot water and dodged a bullet by being able to place a bond offering today. This enabled the Euro to rise and the US Dollar to sell. It also gave some support to the bond markets in general propping the USA long bond. Further, Treasury Bonds are receiving support in a flight to safety as many traders and investors are fearful of a larger stock market sell-off. Price is supported by the 20-day average at 126.06 with the other averages even further behind. Price resistance is 128.00-128.50. There is still room in the bond up channel to go higher before our expected peak in October followed by a sell-off. Momentum has been weak to down but is still holding up well on the high side. Watch for price to stall at 128.00, perhaps form a bear double top, and then trade sideways to down. We forecast the bonds to be at 120.00 by October 1^st on major support; or lower depending upon ECB credit problems.

Gold: Closed at 1209.00 -0.20 nicely supported at the gold magnet number of 1207. Our weeks ago forecast after price touched 1260 on the double top was 1207 with a smaller chance at 1150. Momentum is falling and price is under the 20 and 200 day averages. It almost landed right on the 50 day average at 1208.15. Gold just sold off from a peak in a full five wave cycle. It has also produced a new five wave cycle to the long side. Next, the normal ABC pause and correction is due. If the stock market pauses and sells we expect gold and silver can too but not very far. We should know the answer by next Tuesday or even sooner.

Silver: Closed at 18.33 -0.01 being firmly supported by 18.00 with resistance at 18.48. Price is above all moving averages. Silver is about to embark on its annual bull cycle from July to Christmas with at least 3-4 profit taking events throughout that longer rally. A new continuation triangle is forming. From the looks of this chart, it appears silver wants to break out in a new move toward 19.00 again. Like the gold, if there is no marked stock selling event for some reason (probably on artificial support) silver could continue to rise in a new rally.

Gold & Silver Index (XAU): Closed at 173.06 -0.73 on a selling metal to shares ratio moving average. This is negative but the pattern is not soundly negative; just weak. Momentum is flat to down. Price is well supported at 170.00 on the lower trading channel line and the powerful 200-day moving average. Resistance is the 20 and 50 day averages just above today’s close. This means price is stuck between all these moving averages, channel lines and supports. Expect the XAU to trade sideways in a tight channel followed by a rally breakout IF the other stocks rally too. Otherwise, if the channel line and 200-day average break down, new support is 150.

U.S. Dollar Index: Closed at 82.38 -1.05 as the selling dollar finally fell under the lower trading channel support line. New support is the 200-day average at 81.95, with closer support at 82.00. That latter price is a major support and resistance level for the dollar. We would expect it can hold at least through August. With the oversold Euro newly supported, the dollar should touch 81.95 and perhaps overshoot lower and then come back to 82.00 resistance. By the end of 2010, the dollar could be back at 72.50-75.00. When and if the dollar and bond printing gets out of hand (and we are growing near to that date) watch for an assault on 70.00 to something lower. That could be later fall or the first quarter of 2011.

Crude Oil: Closed at 77.24 with three moving averages and a top channel trading line supporting this price nearby. Momentum is flat to up as traders heard good news from the BP spill being capped today. Also, we are entering the normal annual bull cycle beginning the first of July. With new deep water drilling moratoriums in place in the USA, oil prices should firm up and the price could now be headed to 80.00 resistance. Look for 82.50 by the end of July.

CRB Index: Closed 264.21 +2.01 after supporting at 260 on the 20 and 50 day averages. Resistance is the 200-day average at 265.00 and it is strong. Grain is moving up and the metals and oil are firming on needs and security. The close was at the very top of the trading range signaling more buying on Friday but having to breakout and get past hard 200-day resistance at 265.00. We are near new rallies in several CRB markets including oil (stronger) that should pull up the price to 270 after a pause on Friday at 265. -Traderrog