Following is a brief summary of key markets by Roger Wiegand, who I partner with in the production of Trader Tracks, which Roger writes for investors who are inclined to trade. The following is excerpted each week from Trader Tracks letter. This is one small part of Roger’s weekly publication titled Trader Tracks, which is available through Taylor Hard Money Advisors, Inc. Trader Tracks (Call 718-457-1426.)

Please be aware that the existence of Trader Rog’s work does not indicate any change to our buy-and-hold strategy. When Roger suggests selling certain stocks, or to trade in and out of key markets, that is not Jay Taylor’s advice unless we let you know otherwise. But if you wish to play various movements within long-term secular trends, we think Roger’s trading calls are as good as any we know. So trade if you wish, but do so at your own profit or peril. Following are Roger’s latest comments and summary for the week ended Feb 26.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 10325.26 +4.23 on normal close-out-the-month volume and rising momentum. Some analysts do not see any buying conviction. We see a good bull set-up for shares on the inverted head and shoulders chart pattern. Support is the 50 day average at 10289.43 and resistance is the chart price of 10,400, a major Dow magnet number. While there was wandering and waning by the buyers this week we attribute this to politics and political posturing. We expect markets to rise in rallies next week. Later on, the presidents’ health care plan might pass on reconciliation. However, if it does the opposing party taking charge in the next election would just delete it with new voting. Expect rising markets next week into April.

S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1104.49 +1.55 on normal volume and rising momentum. The close was on an up-bar pattern signaling more Monday buying. Resistance is 1107 and support is 1100-1085. The way the chart is setting-up, we think the S&P’s could produce a bear double top over the next 4-6 weeks before the selling cycle begins. Expect more buying next week.

S&P 100 Index: Closed at 506.06 +0.76 on rising momentum and normal volume. These index volumes are actually higher than normal for a day closing out the month. This is bullish. Support is 500-504 on the price and 20 day average. Resistance is 506.33 almost right on the close. The price of 500 is a big magnet for this index. Look for slower more cautious buying next week as these are the bigger companies. Fund traders would not be too thrilled to buy in now and hold for only 4-6 weeks and then have to sell. We think they rebalance with some light buying-selling and take larger put option short positions for the May-July sell cycle.

Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 1818.68 +5.77 on rising momentum and normal volume. Resistance is 1820 and support is 1801.69 on the 20 day average. This index is always faster and has earlier signals than the other stock indexes. Its’ inverted head and shoulders pattern is complete. The index has a solid channel line and 1800 price support. What’s happening next is the formation of a very massive and wider many months’ long head and shoulders top when looking at the bigger picture. This is consistent with a toppy-top and a big smash coming in about 4-8 weeks. This also fits our forecasts and predictions. More buying next week; then sideways until the selling cycle arrives.

30-Year Bonds: Closed at 116.94 with a close on the open price. Price is under all moving averages, which is bearish. This head and shoulders pattern is forming and at lower prices for the year telling us a hard sell is in the wind. Resistance is 117.00 and support is 116.50 but we think as shares rise over the next month bonds are going down to 115.00 major support. Momentum is also down under zero on the index scale.

Gold: Closed at 1116.00 +10.10 after momentum based and began to rise. There is new and very hard support for gold at 1107. The 20 and 50 day averages are at 1103 with the 200 day far below at 1041.46.The price broke out of a down channel and turned bullish on support at 1107. The five wave rally is complete and the ABC normal pattern is in process. We’ve heard lots of whining and negative talk that gold is selling on this recent pattern between December and the February close-out. We forecast a nice March rally ahead to at least 1150 and hopefully a shot at 1229 the former higher price.

Silver: Closed at 16.47 +0.37 after momentum based and bottomed and turned-up in a new rally. Silver fell from a high in December of over $19 to a recent low near $15.00. Price is above two averages on recovery and near the 50 day average of 16.65, which is new resistance. If gold can touch 1150-1229 we think silver can see 19.77 on the technicals with a chance at 21.50 on a high. Expect more buying next week. One thing we see fooling the herd is that the metals are running several days (weeks) behind a normal annual cycle schedule, which makes traders and analysts worry; including us.

Gold & Silver Index (XAU): Closed at 161.39 +1.39 on rising momentum and a rising metal-to-shares ratio. All the averages are jammed at the 160.00 price region. This is a big magnet number for the XAU. Consequently, the index is very well supported for the next new rally. Resistance is 172.00 on a top channel line. That price is also the mean average so it will be hard resistance in the forthcoming rally. We think price can pop above 172 and touch at least 180 or better. The XAU is still tracking with mainstream stocks.

U.S. Dollar Index: Closed at 80.69 -0.11 on rising momentum (not much chart room left to rise) in a strain to touch 82.00 82.50. I do not think it can, and believe the dollar top is in for now. Expect dollar selling after a top during the second week of March. After that, a drop to 78.50 should be expected. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish but 80.00 is hardest of hard support and resistance numbers we can think of on most any of our charts. The price of 80.00 can draw trading to it from above or below. Look for an index trading range between 79.50 to 81.00 (maximum), before the dollar price levels off and sells lower.

Crude Oil: Closed at 78.27 closing at even on the price. Momentum is up and the chart is forming a very wide (bigger selling) head and shoulders pattern. There is hard resistance at $80.00. Support is the 20-day average at 77.41. Oil is now trading in a new lower range between 76.50 and 78.50. Look for a pull to lower numbers. Supply is large and we are moving into refinery change-over cutting oil demand. These refiners can be down from 3-6 weeks and they stagger the dates to keep production moving. March is normally the beginning of the spring oil rally. We expect it again taking price back to $80 but not until the middle of next month.

CRB Index: Closed at 270.87 -3.87 on rising momentum and cooling oil demand and prices. We see solid support at 270.00. New resistance is 273.77 on the 50 day but 280 is harder price resistance. Look for a new rally in the CRB during the second week of March, which peaks near the first of July. We forecast 300.00 this summer on new inflation and rising commodities prices pretty much across the board. Grains are supposed to be in over-supply but we’ll know for sure after June 30. –Traderrog

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